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The Totally Scientific (But Also Kinda True) Forecast for Restaurant Sales: The Rest of This Year + Your Q1 Reality Check

Hello from Kuypers Creative, where we read your P&L so you don’t have to cry into the walk-in. You asked what sales will look like for the rest of the year and how Q1 behaves. Great news: we’ve run the numbers using a proprietary blend of seasonality, human nature, common sense, and the mysterious force that causes guests to order espresso martinis at 11:07 p.m.

Here’s your playful, practical field guide—equal parts humor and action plan.


The Rest of the Year: The Q4 Roller Coaster (Strap In)

October: Cozy Season + Sportsball

People want carbs, sweaters, and screens. Soups, braises, and anything “cider-glazed” start to fly. Football weekends spike wings, dips, and delivery; weeknights get quieter unless you create a reason (taco trivia, whiskey flights, or “It’s 48°—get chili” push notifications).
Move: Roll out a cold-weather menu mini-drop and a Game Day Bundle that travels well. Give hosts a script: “If you’re watching at home, our kit feeds four—want me to add one to your pickup?”

November: Elastic Pants & Elastic Demand

You’ll see a ramp into Thanksgiving, plus catering and private dining inquiries from people who suddenly discover their dining room table is decorative. Black Friday weekend brunch pops; Small Business Saturday loves independent restaurants.
Move: Install a Holiday Catering Hub on your website (not a PDF graveyard). Offer two tiers: “Heat & Eat” and “Chef-Assist.” Add a corporate order form—make it brainless for office managers.

December: Year-End Chaos (The Profitable Kind)

Holiday parties, gift-card sales, prix fixe, and “I flew home and need a drink with my high school friends” traffic. Lunch becomes a real daypart again. Dinners go late. Gift cards juice cash flow now; redemptions hit later (hello, January), so plan labor accordingly.
Move: Promote Gift Card + Bonus early (“Buy $100, get $20”). Create a Team Party Playbook: three price points, one email to HR lists, and a host script that upgrades to a pre-batched cocktail station. And yes—photo moments. If the tree looks like it’s interviewing for a bank job, add twinkle.

Q4 Reality Check: You’ll be busy on weekends and strange Tuesdays; dead on random Mondays. Pricing can hold (it’s celebration season), but value still matters. Keep a small, beloved prix fixe so nobody panics at the check.


Q1: Resolutions, Redemptions, and The Great Thaw (Eventually)

January: Diets, Dry January, and Gift-Card Hangovers

Guests swear off joy, then visit anyway with gift cards. Alcohol slows, N/A cocktails surge, and everyone pretends salad is a personality. Weekends hold; weekdays soften.
Moves:

  • Launch a “Choose Your January” Menu: half indulgent, half virtuous, both tasty.
  • Build a serious zero-proof list (not “club soda with ideas”). Train servers to lead with it.
  • Create a Gift Card Redemption Ladder: “Use your card this week, get a free dessert card for February.” (Congrats, you just built a bounce-back.)
  • Email subject line that works: “New Year, Still Delicious.”

February: Love + Football + Beads (Yes, All of It)

You get Valentine’s Day, the Big Game, sometimes Mardi Gras and Lunar New Year in the same 2–3 weeks. That’s four distinct menus and five different playlists.
Moves:

  • Super Bowl (or Big Game) Kits: pre-sell by the tray, pickup windows enforced, sauces labeled, napkins included.
  • Valentine’s: prix fixe with prepayment (deposits tame no-shows), optional rose add-on at checkout, and a tiny take-home truffle box with a QR to your March calendar.
  • Mardi Gras/LNY: limited specials with storytelling. People will post if you make it feel like a moment.

March: Brackets, Blarney, and Patio Teasing

March Madness drives bar checks; St. Patrick’s Day loves Guinness and food dye (please be careful), and the first warm Saturday makes every patio become the center of the universe—ready or not.
Moves:

  • Bracket Nights: simple promotions (“Win wings for a month”) and TVs with sound in the bar zone only (dining room is not a sports bar; you have boundaries).
  • Patio Preflight: check heaters, umbrellas, QR signage, and server routes. Soft-launch an “Almost Spring” spritz and a shareable that eats well outdoors.

The Sales Shape: In One Sassy Paragraph

Q4 rises like a well-proofed brioche—October steady, November stronger, December bonkers—then January slices off the top like a New Year’s resolution. February spikes around events, March improves with sports and sunlight. That’s the curve we design for.


Five Plays to Maximize Q4 (a.k.a. Money Season)

  1. Codify Events as Products
    Three party packages, three price points, one contact form. Put it on your nav: Events. If guests can’t find it in two clicks, you don’t do events—you do voicemail.
  2. Gift Cards + Immediate ROI
    “Buy $100, get $20 bonus” everywhere. Print a small “January Treat” card handed out with each purchase to pull them back when it’s quiet.
  3. Menu Engineering with (Holiday) Purpose
    A shareable tower, a signature roast, and a warm dessert. Side list priced to make your accountant purr. Give servers a holiday prompt: “For the table, our ____ is a favorite for groups—want me to send one to start?”
  4. Catering That Actually Scales
    Label everything, include reheating times, sell serving utensils, and upsell disposables. Nobody wants to wash pans on December 22. (Especially not you.)
  5. Staffing + Sanity
    Blackout dates published early, incentive shifts for late nights, and a pre-shift “holiday survival” script with one joke, one upsell, and one guest-recovery move.

Five Plays to Survive (and Thrive) in Q1

  1. Zero-Proof, Full-Flavor
    Build three non-alcoholic cocktails you’d happily drink. Price them with pride. Post them like they’re celebrities. “Our bartender’s Dry January list is dangerously good.”
  2. Value Without Self-Sabotage
    Prix fixe that looks generous but is CM-positive. Add-ons at every step: “+ shrimp,” “+ truffle,” “+ chocolate lava (this is not a trap).”
  3. Redemption to Retention
    Your gift-card redeemers are new, lapsed, or on-the-fence regulars. Tag them. Send a thank-you with a February surprise (“Free app with two entrées—see you soon?”).
  4. Calendar = Confidence
    Announce your Q1 Moments now: Big Game kits, Valentine’s, a Mardi Gras night, a dumpling pop-up, and the return of Tuesday Jazz (or Trivia, or Tacos). Busy follows certainty.
  5. Kitchen & Labor Copilot
    Tighten prep to demand, not habit. Batch smart. Cut the midnight vegetable poetry—prep lists should be data-led, not aspirational. Schedule by daypart reality, not last year’s feelings.

Messaging You Can Steal (We Don’t Mind)

  • December: “Be the office hero. Our party menus make you look brilliant (and on budget).”
  • January: “New year, new…cheese pull? Balance, but make it delicious. See our lighter picks + zero-proof cocktails.”
  • February (Game): “Your living room, our wings. Order the Big Game kit by Thursday—high-fives included.”
  • Valentine’s: “Two forks, one dessert, zero stress. Reserve the Valentine’s prix fixe (rose add-on optional but adorable).”
  • March: “Patio practice starts now. Hot snacks, cold spritz, winter who?”

The Kuypers Creative Mini-Playbook (Because You’re Busy)

  • Website Tune-Up: Add “Events,” “Catering,” and “Gift Cards” to the main nav. Dedicated landing pages, not PDFs taped to dreams.
  • Menu Photos That Sell: One hero shot per tentpole item; alt text and filenames that help search.
  • Email That Prints: Three sends/month: Events push (early month), Menu moment (mid), Weekend “What’s On” (Thurs).
  • Loyalty/CRM Hygiene: Tag gift-card redeemers and January zero-proof buyers. They’re your February and March wins.
  • Host & Server Scripts: Don’t wing it. Literally write the words. (We’ll help. We love words.)

Final Word (Pep Talk Included)

You don’t control the weather, the playoffs, or your cousin’s trending hot take on Yelp. You do control the ladder from “Let’s just grab something” to “We made a night of it.” Q4 rewards restaurants that package occasions and make saying “yes” easy. Q1 rewards operators who balance value with delight, tidy their data, and give guests a reason to come back now, not “someday.”

If you want the playbook built for your concept—menus engineered, pages published, events packaged, and scripts that your team actually uses—Kuypers Creative is ready. We’ll help you finish the year strong and make Q1 the friend who surprises you with concert tickets instead of an IOU.

Now take a deep breath, tell the tree to smile, and pre-batch those martinis. You’ve got this.

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